PDA

View Full Version : Virgin Line Moves by WhoCovers.com



BettorsChat
10-31-2002, 08:36 PM
Last week we reported that the wiseguys had been getting slapped around for much of the month of October, but this past week was definitely one for the sharp players, not the books. Again, it was most apparent on the added board where games from the independents, MAC conference and Sun Belt conference are listed, the smaller schools that take very little public money. Moves towards Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Akron, Ball State, North Texas, Louisiana-Monroe and Miami-Ohio all proved to be correct – each of those teams covered the pointspread. Worth noting that the MAC games have been added to the regular rotation this week, no longer on the added board, as the books appear willing to take the bettors head on in this conference, doubling their limits on MAC games.

But it wasn’t just the added board that hurt the books as a whole on Saturday. Even the big national TV games, a steady contrarian spot all season, went to the bettors. It seemed as if every bettor in the country had a piece of Iowa, West Virginia, Alabama, Wisconsin and Notre Dame. All five were winners. In the non-televised contests, Wake Forest took money, as did Army, Illinois, Temple, Maryland, Syracuse and Kansas State. Again, all winners. The books won comparably few big decisions, aided immeasurably when Washington St took a knee inside two minutes at the Wildcats three yard line in their non-covering win at Arizona. Books also won big when Texas A+M blew a 17 point lead in the 2nd half to Nebraska and when LSU was a turnover waiting to happen in their loss at Auburn, but the bookies big wins were few and far between. It certainly didn’t help when both the Stanford –UCLA and Boston College – Pittsburgh game both fell between the opening and closing numbers, a nice opportunity for the middlers of the world.

The early money at the Stardust has done better in the NFL than in college this year, hitting at a nearly 60% clip heading into Sunday. But the bettors did not have a banner weekend with their pro selections this time around. Both total moves, on the Saints and the Jags to go Under the total were losers, as was the support for the Jets (oh, those friggen Jets) and the Cowboys.

As we get ready to look at the virgin lines from the Stardust this week, we must mention that ‘Dust race and Sports Book Director Joe Lupo announced his resignation last week, effective at the end of football season ( I believe Joe will be staying on through the Super Bowl). Joe is heading to Atlantic City for a hotel management position at the brand new Boyd property, the Borgata. We certainly wish Joe well in his new endeavor – he is the kind of bookmaker that bettors should love, one willing to take a position with his number, one that never moved the line on air alone, and one who was fair and honest in his dealings with both sharps and squares.

Longtime assistant Bob Scucci will be taking over the head linesmaking position at the Stardust, and Doug Castanada will be his #2 man. It will be very, very interesting to see how the new head honchos react to their increased responsibilities. Certainly, every wiseguy in town will be lining up to take shots at their lines – Bob and Doug will be put to the test early and often. Lupo was in a strong enough position that he could take opinions with his numbers, but it remains to be seen whether Scucci will have that same leeway with the bean counters upstairs to take some risks with the book’s liability in an effort to produce the big time hold percentages that Joe was able to do. It will be next fall before the full effects of the changes are felt, and we’ll be sure to include regular looks at the situation in future editions of this Virgin Line Moves column.

Now let’s take a look at this week’s Virgin Line Moves from the Stardust.

Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
TCU -1.5 -2.5 Southern Miss
Maryland -9 -10.5 N CAROLINA
Auburn -1.5 -2.5 OLE MISS
Alabama -21 -22 VANDERBILT
W Michigan -3 -3.5 BALL ST
Kentucky -3 -3.5 MISSISSIPPI ST
OKLAHOMA ST 3.5 3 Texas A+M
San Diego St 3.5 2.5 BYU
S CAROLINA 2.5 1.5 Tennessee
Syracuse 6.5 5.5 C FLORIDA
Boise St -31 -32.5 UTEP
HAWAII -23 -25 San Jose St
ARKANSAS -20.5 -23 Troy St
N TEXAS -14.5 -15.5 Louisiana-Monroe
NEW MEXICO ST -2.5 -3.5 Middle Tennessee


Small (˝ point) moves
Colorado St 1.5 1 AIR FORCE
Florida St -10.5 -11 WAKE FOREST
E MICHIGAN 12.5 12 C Michigan
Houston 7.5 7 MEMPHIS
Missouri 11 10.5 IOWA ST
SMU 7.5 7 Nevada-Reno
OKLAHOMA -11 -11.5 Colorado


The ‘opinion’ moves were: TCU, Colorado St, Florida St, Auburn, Alabama, Eastern Michigan, Kentucky, Houston, Missouri, Oklahoma St, San Diego St, SMU, S Carolina, Syracuse, Hawaii and Arkansas.

The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Maryland, Western Michigan, Oklahoma, Boise St and North Texas.

There was no offshore line posted on Sunday night for the New Mexico St – Middle Tennessee game.

NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
Patriots 3 +3(Ev) BILLS
Vikings 7.5 7 BUCS
LIONS -1.5 -3(Ev) Cowboys
Bengals 3 +3(Ev) TEXANS
CARDINALS 4 3.5 Rams
Dolphins 6 5.5 PACKERS
Bengals – Texans Total 36.5 37.5
Dolphins – Packers Total 43.5 43


RECAP of Last Week’s Moves (10-20)
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
Maryland -10 -11 DUKE W
KENTUCKY 5.5 4.5 Georgia L
ARMY 11.5 10.5 Uab W
Utep 3 2.5 TULSA L
Wisconsin -1.5 -2.5 MICHIGAN ST W
Penn St 6 5 OHIO ST L
Cal 7 6.5 OREGON ST L
Boise St -14 -15 SAN JOSE ST W
Texas Tech 6.5 5.5 COLORADO L
ARIZONA ST -3 -3.5 Washington W
Washington St -9 -10 ARIZONA L
UL- MONROE 8.5 7 Utah St W


Small (˝ point) moves
Iowa 4.5 4 MICHIGAN
Indiana 9 8.5 ILLINOIS
E Carolina 16 15.5 LOUISVILLE
CINCINNATI -5.5 -6 Memphis
Lsu -3.5 -4 AUBURN
SAN DIEGO ST -1 -1.5 Unlv
UConn 8.5 8 VANDERBILT


The ‘opinion’ moves were: Maryland, Iowa, Kentucky, Army, UTEP, LSU, Arizona St, Vanderbilt and UL-Monroe. (5-4, 50 – 55 – 3 YTD)

The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Indiana, E Carolina, Cinci, Penn St, Cal, Boise St, Texas Tech, San Diego St and Washington St.

There was no offshore line was posted on Sunday night for the Michigan St – Wisconsin game.

NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
Falcons 4.5 4 SAINTS W
JETS -2.5 -3 Browns L
BENGALS 6.5 5.5 Titans W
COWBOYS -1.5 -2.5 Seahawks L
EAGLES -6.5 -7 Giants ??
Saints – Falcons Total 49 48 L
Jaguars – Texans Total 39.5 38.5 L


NFL moves are now 33-26-1 YTD, pending the Monday Night outcome.

Art
11-01-2002, 12:13 AM
Thanks for the valuable info.