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richieg
07-13-2009, 08:13 AM
BIO:
Rich Green is the editor of FreeSportsLetter-- Free Football, Basketball and Baseball Picks (http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com) , a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 30 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.



2009 NFL and NCAA Football Wagering Tips

Emotion -- The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as Bobby Bowden, Pete Carroll,*Tom O'Brien, Urban Meyer, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.

Sandwich Games -- Be careful of ‘sandwich' games.*That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.

If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful! Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement -- Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game.

I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.

NCAA football can be different though.*With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2009 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the FreeSportsLetter-- Free Football, Basketball and Baseball Picks (http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com) site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!

--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
FreeSportsLetter-- Free Football, Basketball and Baseball Picks (http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com)


(SCROLL DOWN FOR NFL TRENDS)

2009 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends

Here is a look before the 2009 College Football season starts on many teams and some basic ATS trends:

Air Force -- 12-2 ATS in first Conference game, 0-8 ATS after scoring less than 10 points, 0-5 ATS as Conference Home Favorites greater than 14 points
Akron -- Finished '07 on a 1-4-1 ATS run, finished '06 on an 0-5 ATS run, finished '08 on a 2-5 ATS run
Alabama -- 9-5 ATS as Road Favorites past five seasons
UAB -- 1-5 ATS as Road Favorites
Arizona -- 9-3 ATS at Home past two seasons
Arizona State -- On 4-11 ATS losing run lately
Arkansas -- Finished on 5-2 ATS winning run for first-year Head Coach Petrino
Arkansas State -- 1-8 ATS as Road Favorites in seven years under Head Coach Steve Roberts
Army -- New Head Coach
Auburn -- New Head Coach
Ball State -- New Head Coach, 11-4 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Baylor -- Finished on 5-0 ATS winning run under first-year Head Coach Briles
Boise State -- 19-8 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons
Boston College -- New Head Coach
Bowling Green -- New Head Coach, 11-4 ATS as Road Dogs recently
BYU -- Finished last season on 1-8 ATS losing run
Buffalo -- 22-11 ATS in Conference Play past three seasons
California -- 5-1 ATS in Game One, 7-0 ATS as Home Favorites last season
Central Florida -- 1-8 ATS as Conference Road Favorites, 0-4 ATS as greater than 20 point Favorites
Central Michigan -- 13-5 ATS at Home past four seasons
Cincinnati -- 1-9 ATS last game of season
Clemson -- 1-8 ATS as Double Digit Road Favorites
Colorado -- 4-14 ATS as Road Dogs past four seasons
Colorado State -- 5-0 ATS at Home under first-year Head Coach Steve Fairchild
Connecticut -- 8-2 ATS as Home Dogs past four seasons
Duke -- 11-6 ATS as Road Dogs past three seasons
East Carolina -- 15-3 ATS as Road Dogs in four seasons under Head Coach Skip Holtz
Eastern Michigan -- New Head Coach, 4-9 ATS as Home Dogs in past five seasons
Florida -- 6-1-1 ATS as Road Dogs lately, 7-0 ATS as Road Favorites last season
Florida Atlantic -- 7-1 ATS as Road Favorites past three seasons
Florida State -- 5-0 ATS in Bowl Games
Fresno State -- 4-19 ATS as Favorites past three seasons
Georgia -- 8-1 ATS as Road Dogs lately
Georgia Tech -- 8-3 ATS under first-year Head Coach Paul Johnson
Hawaii -- Finished on 7-3 ATS winning run under first-year Head Coach Greg McMakin
Houston -- Won as Bowlers under first-year Head Coach Kevin Sumlin
Idaho -- 9-16 ATS as Road Dogs past four seasons
Illinois -- 15-9 ATS in Conference Play last three seasons
Iowa -- 4-9 ATS as Home Favorites past three seasons
Iowa State -- New Head Coach
Kansas -- 14-4 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons
Kansas State -- 1-8 ATS as Road Favorites last five seasons, 0-6 ATS last two games of last three seasons
Kent State -- 1-9 ATS after they score a Touchdown or less
Kentucky -- three Bowl wins in a row, 2-1 ATS in them
UL-Lafayette -- 6-1 ATS as Favorites past two seasons
UL-Monroe -- 17-8 ATS as Road Dogs last four seasons, finished last three seasons on two 5-0 ATS and one 4-1 ATS winning runs
LSU -- 8-22 ATS in Conference Play, 4-0 ATS in Bowls in four seasons under Head Coach Les Miles*
Louisiana Tech -- 6-23 ATS as Road Dogs and 5-0 ATS as Home Dogs recently
Louisville -- 2-6 ATS as Home Favorites
Marshall -- 6-15 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Maryland -- 0-4 ATS as Road Favorites
Memphis -- 3-8 ATS as Home Favorites last four seasons
Miami -- 17-30 ATS record last four seasons
Michigan -- 2-10 ATS under first-year Head Coach Rich Rodriguez
Michigan State -- 19-3 ATS in last Home game
MTSU -- 6-2 ATS as Road Favorites past four seasons
Mississippi -- 5-0 ATS as Road Dogs and finished on 5-0 ATS winning run under first-year Head Coach Nutt
Mississippi State -- New Head Coach
Missouri -- 37-3 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road
Navy -- 13-5 ATS as Road Dogs last four seasons
North Carolina -- 2-8 ATS as Favorites less than a Touchdown
North Carolina State -- Finished last season on 8-0 ATS winning run
Notre Dame -- 7-13 ATS as Home Favorites and 5-1 ATS as Road Favorites lately
Ohio State -- 16-4 ATS as Road Favorites recently
Oklahoma -- 0-3 ATS last three Bowl events
Oregon -- 15-7 ATS as Home Favorites last four seasons, 9-1 ATS first Road game
Oregon State -- 4-1 ATS last five Bowl games
Penn State -- 14-8 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons
Pittsburgh -- 2-7 ATS as Home Favorites past two seasons
Rice -- 20-2 ATS as Home Dogs in Conference Play
Rutgers -- 0-8 ATS as Favorites of less than a Touchdown
San Diego State -- New Head Coach, 0-9 ATS as Home Dogs greater than two Touchdowns
San Jose State -- 12-2 ATS as Home Favorites
SMU -- 1-9 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play
Southern Mississippi -- Finished on 5-0 ATS winning run under first-year Head Coach Larry Fedora
TCU -- 17-4 ATS at Home last four seasons
Temple -- 18-7 ATS in Conference Play last five seasons, 12-4 ATS as Home Dogs
Texas -- 14-2 ATS in last Home game, 7-0 ATS as Road Dogs
Texas A&M -- 2-36 ATS when they lose on the Road
Texas Tech -- 1-6 ATS as Road Dogs, 3-0 ATS as Home Dogs
Troy -- 14-7 ATS as Road Dogs recently
UCLA -- 24-8 ATS at Home past five seasons
UNLV -- 3-11 ATS as Home Favorites recently
USC -- 11-2 ATS in last Home game, 6-1 ATS in Bowl games
Utah -- 16-8 ATS in Conference Play last three seasons
Vanderbilt -- 17-5 ATS as Road Dogs
Virginia -- 3-9 ATS as Road Favorites last four seasons
Virginia Tech -- 24-9 ATS on the Road last four seasons, 2-9 ATS in non-Conference Play recently
Wake Forest -- 10-1 ATS as Double Digit non-Conference Dogs recently
Washington -- 1-11 as Home Favorites last five seasons, 0-13 ATS as Conference Favorites greater than a field goal
Washington State -- Finished on 4-0 ATS winning run for first-year Head Coach Paul Wulff, 7-15 as Road Dogs
West Virginia -- 9-1 ATS as Conference Dogs
Western Kentucky -- 2-7-1 ATS in first lined year
Wisconsin -- 8-0 ATS as non-Conference Favorites less than 24 points
Wyoming -- New Head Coach


Here is a look before the 2009 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:

Arizona -- 5-0 ATS after scoring less than 10 points, 0-4 ATS as Favorites on Monday Night Football
Atlanta -- 0-12 ATS Home off of back-to-back Straight Up wins
Baltimore -- 15-0 ATS at Home after playing a non-Conference game
Buffalo -- 3-20 ATS after playing Miami
Carolina -- 7-0 ATS after allowing at least 35 points, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than a Touchdown
Chicago -- 5-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs, 1-8 ATS as Favorites on MNF
Cincinnati -- 10-0 ATS after playing Cleveland, 0-7 ATS after playing the Steelers
Cleveland -- 5-1 ATS as Road Favorites, 10-2 ATS after playing Cincinnati, 1-8 ATS before playing Cincinnati
Dallas -- 9-1 ATS after losing by Double Digits, 12-107 ATS when they lose Straight Up
Denver -- New Head Coach, 14-33-1 ATS last three seasons
Detroit -- New Head Coach, 0-7 ATS before they play Green Bay
Green Bay -- 0-12 ATS as Favorites greater than 11 points, 16-8 ATS on the Road last three seasons
Houston -- 8-2 ATS as Home Dogs in three seasons under Head Coach Gary Kubiak, 0-3 ATS lifetime as Road Favorites
Indianapolis -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 10-2 ATS after playing Houston
Jacksonville -- 9-1 ATS before playing Indianapolis, 13-2 ATS before playing Tennessee
Kansas City -- New Head Coach, 0-6 ATS as non-Conference Road Favorites, 7-1 ATS as Double Digit Dogs
Miami -- 7-0 ATS on the Road versus the AFC West, 0-6 ATS as Home Favorites greater than a Touchdown
Minnesota -- 0-5 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 1-7 ATS after allowing less than 10 points
New England -- 9-2 ATS before playing Buffalo, 1-7 ATS as Double Digit Favorites
New Orleans -- 5-0-1 ATS after playing Atlanta, 1-12 ATS as Favorites greater than a Touchdown in Division Play
NY Giants -- 22-7 ATS on the Road last three seasons, 5-0 ATS before playing the Eagles, 1-5 ATS as Dogs on MNF
NY Jets -- New Head Coach, Home team in New England series is 0-7 ATS
Oakland -- 0-9 ATS as Home Favorites, 0-5 ATS after playing San Diego, Road team in Kansas City series is 6-0 ATS
Philadelphia -- 5-0 ATS after playing Washington, 11-1 ATS after playing the Giants, 1-7 ATS Home after two Road games
Pittsburgh -- 8-1 ATS before playing Cleveland, 13-3 ATS before playing Baltimore, 1-7 ATS before playing Cincinnati
St. Louis -- New Head Coach, 0-6 ATS after playing a Division game on the Road
San Diego -- 4-0 ATS as Home Dogs, 8-1 ATS after playing Denver, 1-5 ATS as Double Digit Favorites
San Francisco -- 0-5 ATS before playing Seattle, 1-7 ATS after they score at least 28 points, Road team in Arizona series is 8-0 ATS
Seattle -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS before playing Arizona, 1-6 ATS on the Road after playing St. Louis
Tampa Bay -- New Head Coach, 4-0-1 ATS as Favorites versus the NFC East, 2-10 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play
Tennessee -- 5-0 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 6-1 ATS before the Bye Week, 0-4 ATS on MNF as Division Dogs
Washington -- 7-1 ATS before playing the Giants, 1-8 ATS at Home in non-Conference Play, and 0-5 ATS as Favorites on MNF

--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
FreeSportsLetter-- Free Football, Basketball and Baseball Picks (http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com)