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View Full Version : Reasons to take Jacksonville ML/Cover over the Patriots



Spearit
01-10-2008, 11:03 AM
First off to win 16 games is a tribute- But I have a hard time believing they will go undefeated with Jax and Indy at home. Yes- a sterling record at home but these are foes that have the moxi to beat them!

NE have won numerous awards- defense and offense and put together a friggin machine for the ages!
However, we are due for a cataclysmic offering from the Gods and this may surely happen this weekend!

Yes, Jax does not have the secondary to contend with NE and so on. But stranger things have happened. At the odds isn't 50bucks to win a chunk within your budget!

This Director of Scouting believes so! He writes:

First of all, it all starts with a little R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Aretha Franklin sang about it and the Jaguars are looking for some of it. The Jaguars went 11-5 in the toughest division in the NFL -- the AFC South -- and would have gone 12-4 had they played their starters in Week 17. The Patriots played in the dismal AFC East. After going 16-0, I will call them the best regular-season team of all time, but six of those wins came against the Bills, Dolphins and Jets, who were a combined 12-36.
Still, despite that, the Patriots have eight Pro Bowlers while the Jaguars had zero until Fred Taylor got in this week due to an injury to Willie Parker, but that's not exactly a rousing show of respect. I know Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio will be reminding his players all week that they had no Pro Bowl players voted in by their peers, opposing coaches or fans. He will be telling his team the Patriots' coaches, players and fans don't respect them since those are the people who make up the voting process. The Jaguars will be motivated.

Secondly, I don't really care what the Patriots' defense is ranked -- it is overrated. Yes, they were fourth overall, 10th against the run and fourth in scoring defense. Those are great stats, but they are misleading.
The Patriots' run defense was not very good against Dallas, which averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Or Indianapolis, as Joseph Addai ran for 112 yards. Or Baltimore (Willis McGahee had 138 yards) or the New York Giants, who averaged over four yards a carry.

The common denominator is those last three games were close. The Patriots' run defense ranking looks good, but it's a mirage. It's that high because the Patriots blow people out and force them to throw.
You know what I love about the Jags? They don't get blown out. Teams that don't commit penalties don't get blown out. Teams that take care of the ball don't get blown out. Teams that can run the ball don't get blown out.

Speaking of that run game, the Jaguars have big-time running backs in Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. They also have a ticked-off offensive line that gets overlooked despite its success. Taylor and Jones-Drew don't make miracles happen every week on their own. Vince Manuwai, one of the most physical guards in the NFL, should have been a Pro Bowler. He is an excellent athlete who can get to the second level, and his ability to reach veteran ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will open up the Jacksonville run game.

The Patriots have an excellent defensive line and it gets much more hype than the Jaguars' offensive line.
But the Jaguars won't back down from anyone. They look at this Patriots defensive line and believe it's just another opportunity to prove they are tougher and more physical.

And in a twist, what the Jaguars do best on offense is also their best defense against the amazing Patriots offense.
There really is not a defensive scheme yet devised to stop the Patriots' offense.

It is the most explosive attack we have seen in a long time, but know this: New England won't be able to run on Jacksonville. Pittsburgh ran it 26 times for a 1.7 average Saturday night, so the Patriots will throw the ball. The Jaguars' weak link is the back end of the defense. How do you protect your pass defense if you are the Jags? You run the ball. Then you run the ball again. Then you run the ball some more. The best way to beat the Patriots' offense is to leave it standing on the sideline. Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Co. can't beat you if they are not on the field.

Now that sounds simple and there's much more Jacksonville will need to do to pull of this historic upset. And undoubtedly, Del Rio will have a great game plan because he is one of the best coaches in the NFL. There is only so much he can do though. To beat the best, you have to play your best.

For Jacksonville, that means running the ball, establishing a good short-to-intermediate, high-percentage passing game, winning the turnover battle and having the advantage in the special teams. The Patriots have dominated teams with their talent and because they're intimidating. But Del Rio isn't easily intimidated and neither are the Jags.

So, yes, I guess I will continue to be unfazed by the Patriots' 16-0 record. And no, I am not a fan of the Jaguars or hater of the Patriots. A fan never thinks his team can lose, but no team is invincible. In the playoffs, it's one-and-done and anything can happen. Even Jacksonville beating New England.

Jeremy Green, director of pro scouting for Scouts Inc., has been an NFL scout for more than 10 years.

Spearit
01-10-2008, 12:25 PM
This is not an easy play as we are so hyped up on the Pats but
do you not think the cover is worth a bet- The value has gone up again!

meaiken
01-10-2008, 12:26 PM
BoDog probably won't even offer it.

GL with it./ I would do it if I could. Bet I also would have when they played Balt, Giants, and Eagles and look how that would have worked out for me.

frankb03
01-10-2008, 01:17 PM
I think it can be argued the 2007 Patriots have the greatest offense in NFL history. Even at 16-0 the Patriots are not the greatest team. Not even close. They're defense is very suspect. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens would have beaten the 2007 Pats.

molta02
01-10-2008, 01:30 PM
I think it can be argued the 2007 Patriots have the greatest offense in NFL history. Even at 16-0 the Patriots are not the greatest team. Not even close. They're defense is very suspect. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens would have beaten the 2007 Pats.


:red:

Whybant?
01-10-2008, 01:57 PM
Sorry but the Patriots would probably beat Dilfer and his boys by 20.

imo

meaiken
01-10-2008, 02:00 PM
Sorry but the Patriots would probably beat Dilfer and his boys by 20.

imo


Defense wouldn't have given up that many points.

GrandPa
01-10-2008, 02:04 PM
Sounds to me like the Patriots are the team still not getting any respect. Lots of short-term memory loss in this thread.

and BTW, I went to Week 17 game, and it is a reach to say Jax would have won with their starters in. Houston achieved highest point total in franchise history, largely because of two KO returns for TDs. I am pretty sure those were not backup special teams players giving chase.

Jacksonville is playing great, sure, and it seems lots of people are trying to find flaws in NE ( #10 run defense) and hating for the sake of hating, or pure unabashed jealousy, but my money will be on NE for the next three games they play.

GL though.

chaching22
01-10-2008, 02:05 PM
Jacksonville's defense is not that good. This game will be close to the number if not a blowout. ML is always worth a shot for a little bit though.

3ebRocks
01-10-2008, 02:22 PM
Great article. I like all four dogs this weekend actually. Wasnt thinking of playing the moneyline but the post makes a good point. Guess its worth a shot for a nice payout. Thanks for the great read.

Chado1
01-10-2008, 08:30 PM
This article is brainwashing me to take the Jags...:red:

I wont be betting on this game (I dont think..:red:) but it will be very exciting to watch though!!!

MtrCtyPimp
01-10-2008, 08:37 PM
Spears usually takes quite some time to make his point but I agree with him on this.....Let me preface this by saying that the Pats are better than the Jags...I will not say otherwise but to give the Jags 2TDs when the Pat run D isnt great and the Jags D is above average.......I think the Jags will be able to keep this game close and control the clock by running the ball...JMO

PEACE

wayne1218
01-10-2008, 08:51 PM
I said it in the Poll. Most here are on the Jags and i expected that. The line keeps going up too. It is supposed to be pretty good weather on Saturday night. I see Peterson out for the Jags and a very banged up secondary with a rookie mixed in there. I also see an aging N.E. defense that really needed a much deserved bye week. I think that will do wonders for them. If N.E. stops the run, the Jags could be in big trouble. The WR's and Garrad are a combination that does nothing to scare anybody. Special teams and a running game. If the Jags can do both very well, they have a shot. If they can't run the ball, they are in deep shit (IMO).

Spearit
01-11-2008, 12:21 PM
Interesting! As far as Peterson out - he has been out for quite a while. I do believe we will get to Brady. I also believe he will burn us at times. Can we run on NE- I seriously believe so!
Garrard is runner as well- showed it in the Pitt game when it mattered.

If this game is a shootout- Jax loses 34-28. If we take care of business and defense them with deep cover speed (we do not possess that) and a swarming line coupled with no mistakes or turnovers (we are capable of that) then we will upset them or at least cover.

As far as taking time to make my point- my only excuse is that I am seriously drain bramage!

Chado1
01-11-2008, 12:26 PM
New England hasnt been able to stop anyones rushing attack this year so I doubt that wil change against the Jags Taylor-Jones Drew rushing attack....

slappy's son
01-11-2008, 01:11 PM
Pittsburgh wasn't very good this year, and if not for the dumb play calling late in the game by Pittsburgh, Jax loses that game. Jax was VERY fortunate to win last week, and Brady & Company should be able to throw mid-to-high 30's on Jax. Jax cannot make any turn-overs against NE, for if they do, they will lose by more than 2 TDs. Jax will need to match score for score, and hope NE turns it over. If they fail to match score for score, or turn it over 1-2 times, NE wins by 21.

aplous
01-11-2008, 01:20 PM
I dont like betting a dog unless I think they have a chance to win SU.......no one really thinks NE will lose SU do they?


PATRIOTS (-13) over Jaguars
According to Rule No. 10 of the Manifesto, you can't pick an underdog if you don't think they can win the game. So let's look at the numbers here.


Belichick's playoff record in New England: 14-2
Brady's playoff record at home: 6-0
Belichick's record against Jack Del Rio: 3-0
New England's lifetime record against Jacksonville: 7-1
New England's 2007 regular season record: 16-0
Number of '07 Patriots wins by 14-plus points: 11
Record of '07 Jags after falling behind by more than seven points: 0-4

For anyone playing the "Jacksonville can control the clock and pressure Brady" card, didn't we see the Steelers drop 19 points on them in about five seconds last weekend once they started chucking the ball every down? What about the fact Jacksonville relies on its defensive line for pressure and isn't one of those Philly-type teams that blitzes from all angles -- if anything, the Jags are pretty predictable -- which makes them exactly the type of defense Brady chewed up and wore down this season. (Remember the Redskins game?) Also, who's covering Wes Welker on the Jags? Have we figured this out yet? Do you really think Randy Moss -- someone who always shows up for big games -- isn't coming out of Round 2 with one huge play? Hasn't Belichick always been able to shut down one-dimensional offenses? Do you feel even remotely confident in Garrard trying to match points with Brady if he's down by double digits in the fourth quarter?

Maybe the Pats can be beaten, but not by these guys. In fact, I'm insulted that you even think this might be close.

The Pick: New England 42, Jacksonville 15.

Chado1
01-11-2008, 01:22 PM
I wouldnt touch this game either....could go either way...way too tough to call ATS...better options for this weekend IMO....

Chado1
01-11-2008, 01:23 PM
I dont like betting a dog unless I think they have a chance to win SU.......no one really thinks NE will lose SU do they?


PATRIOTS (-13) over Jaguars
According to Rule No. 10 of the Manifesto, you can't pick an underdog if you don't think they can win the game. So let's look at the numbers here.


Belichick's playoff record in New England: 14-2
Brady's playoff record at home: 6-0
Belichick's record against Jack Del Rio: 3-0
New England's lifetime record against Jacksonville: 7-1
New England's 2007 regular season record: 16-0
Number of '07 Patriots wins by 14-plus points: 11
Record of '07 Jags after falling behind by more than seven points: 0-4

For anyone playing the "Jacksonville can control the clock and pressure Brady" card, didn't we see the Steelers drop 19 points on them in about five seconds last weekend once they started chucking the ball every down? What about the fact Jacksonville relies on its defensive line for pressure and isn't one of those Philly-type teams that blitzes from all angles -- if anything, the Jags are pretty predictable -- which makes them exactly the type of defense Brady chewed up and wore down this season. (Remember the Redskins game?) Also, who's covering Wes Welker on the Jags? Have we figured this out yet? Do you really think Randy Moss -- someone who always shows up for big games -- isn't coming out of Round 2 with one huge play? Hasn't Belichick always been able to shut down one-dimensional offenses? Do you feel even remotely confident in Garrard trying to match points with Brady if he's down by double digits in the fourth quarter?

Maybe the Pats can be beaten, but not by these guys. In fact, I'm insulted that you even think this might be close.

The Pick: New England 42, Jacksonville 15.

Ya but the same can be said about the close win over the Eagles and Ravens...who would have thought they could have kept it close? There is no way of telling really in this one....

harold_bush
01-11-2008, 01:54 PM
Here is the problem I see for Jax. Yes, they will run the ball, yes they will score. The problem is the defense. Jax's weaknes os defense is the pass D. Uh-oh. The two games that would scare me are the last two games they played against QBs that are on the same level as Brady (obviously nobody was this year), Brees and Peyton. Manning threw for 288 yards and 4 TDs, and Brees threw for 445 yards and 3 TDs.

I see the game close early, 14-10 Pats late into the 2nd quarter. Pats score a TD before the half putting them up 21-10. Some back and forth in the 2nd half, w/ a final score of 41-24 Pats.

That said, I'd love to see the Pats lose.

harold_bush
01-11-2008, 01:54 PM
double post, sorry.

aplous
01-11-2008, 01:56 PM
That writeup is from the Sports Guy on ESPN...who happens to be a HUUUUGE Chowd fan.

harold_bush
01-11-2008, 01:58 PM
That writeup is from the Sports Guy on ESPN...who happens to be a HUUUUGE Chowd fan.

which write up, mine?

Chado1
01-11-2008, 01:59 PM
Here is the problem I see for Jax. Yes, they will run the ball, yes they will score. The problem is the defense. Jax's weaknes os defense is the pass D. Uh-oh. The two games that would scare me are the last two games they played against QBs that are on the same level as Brady (obviously nobody was this year), Brees and Peyton. Manning threw for 288 yards and 4 TDs, and Brees threw for 445 yards and 3 TDs.

I see the game close early, 14-10 Pats late into the 2nd quarter. Pats score a TD before the half putting them up 21-10. Some back and forth in the 2nd half, w/ a final score of 41-24 Pats.

That said, I'd love to see the Pats lose.

Exaclty...flip a coin on this one ATS......

GOLDENGREEK
01-11-2008, 02:01 PM
I think it can be argued the 2007 Patriots have the greatest offense in NFL history. Even at 16-0 the Patriots are not the greatest team. Not even close. They're defense is very suspect. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens would have beaten the 2007 Pats.
AS WOULD THE 85 BEARS AND SOME OF THE 49er superbowl teams

aplous
01-11-2008, 02:04 PM
The one that I posted.....

GOLDENGREEK
01-11-2008, 02:05 PM
Im leaning to 3 of the four favs right now -- GB and Dallas are locked in and im leaning to NE ( unfortunately )

3ebRocks
01-11-2008, 02:15 PM
Take a hard look at the Pittsburgh game and you will see that Jax was very very very fortunate to beat a Pittsburgh team that New England had their way with. Also, give Bellichick an extra week to prepare for a one dimensional offense? If the weather is good (ie not windy) I think the Jags are in for a heap of trouble. Probably are either way. Jax is a good storyline and the nation has picked up on the whole underdog thing and I love Garrard, think he is a heck of a qb who doesnt get the credit he deserves. That being said, they are outclassed here. We all know Del Rio will keep it on the ground to keep Brady and Co. off the field. Problem is, Bellichick knows that also. In addition, if Jax tries to throw, they have to deal with a lock down corner on one side, a healthy perenial pro bowl safety and an older but way above average linebacking core. And Jax brings merely average receivers. Nothing more, nothing less. Lastly, Jax D is not and never was this season that good. And one of their great players is banged up. Another is suspended ( I think, could be wrong but I dont think so). New England will put up 35+ IMO. Can Jax put up 21? I bet not.