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GrandPa
03-17-2007, 01:34 PM
Fellas, I am sticking my neck out today and making a bold statement, going against every single capper on every board I read, with a play that is very unpopular:

Louisville +2.5
Louisville ML +140

I hate being on the opposite of every single capper I respect, but in this case I see no other choice. Let me first say that I grew up as an Aggie, and even went to A&M for a couple years, so there is no homer bias going on here.

We all know that the game is being played at Rupp Arena, a mere 78 miles from UL campus. So the crowd will be a pro-Cardinals partisan, but that in itself does not guarantee victory. A&M fared very well in hostile arenas this year, becoming the first B12 South team to win @ Kansas, and the first A&M team to win at Norman, and the first A&M team to win @ Stillwater since 1924.

What concerns me is what I perceive as a tendency to shrink when the heat is on at times, and too much reliance on All-American Acie Law IV. I have seen A&M play a lot this year, and there was a time when I saw great things for the team come tourney time. But having witnessed a home loss to Tech, after having a double digit halftime lead, and the second half meltdown in the B12 tourney to a very average Okie State team, has inspired doubt in my corner.

Although the Aggies did indeed pull away and win ( and cover) v #14 Penn, there was a 21-6 run by Penn which gave the Quakers a brief 2H lead, with the Aggies blowing 3 straight layups at one point. Scary stuff.

Perhaps I am expecting perfection, and reading too much into these two losses. I don't think A&M can win without more contributions from Kirk, Carter, and Kavaliauskus. Jones' tendency to be in foul trouble is well-documented. Acie Law is one of those legendary clutch performers, who never seems to miss when the game is on the line. In the loss to the Cowboys , A&M opted to let three other players take a last shot, so his effectiveness/abilities were deemed moot.

Louisville seems to be peaking at the right time, with covers in 8 of L9.

Here's the thing that scares me most. As mentioned before , I have yet to find a single capper on any of the sites I visit to be on Louisville, and worse, most all are touting A&M as a top play. I haven't seen this kind of support since, uh, Oregon yesterday, and we all know how that worked out. I had the same fears on the Ducks yesterday, as the public was backing OU to the tune of 85-90%. Consequently, I played a small play on Miami(O) for 1H , and won, and proceed to lose all of that and much more for game and 2H plays.

I am always concerned when an overwhelming # of folks are on one side, because Vegas is right more than it is wrong, as evidenced by the new construction every day there.

The line opened at 3, was bet down to 1, and has returned to 2 and 2.5. The power ratings indicate A&M should be a 6 or 7 point favorite, so what do you suppose that means? I don't use the word trap, but in the case of something appearing too good to be true, I think it fits the bill here.

I hope I am wrong for the sake of all of the great cappers here at BC, but hope I am right for the sake of my pocketbook.

GL all

SACPAC
03-17-2007, 01:36 PM
Good Luck.Happy St. Patty's Day. Gramps..

GrandPa
03-17-2007, 01:37 PM
Disclaimer: I should say that I have not read every post, and realize there are a few great cappers on L'ville, so no slight is intended at anyone on either side.

Kaptain
03-17-2007, 01:40 PM
gl to ya with the Contrarian Play GrandPa......kapt

LSUTyger
03-17-2007, 01:41 PM
I like that call. Get em Gramps!

beerball101
03-17-2007, 01:43 PM
bol pops

like the play

bryce
03-17-2007, 01:46 PM
Best of luck Grandpa...understand and I think Louisville has a good shot of winning. Just think they fall short today!!

GOLDENGREEK
03-17-2007, 02:10 PM
Im With Ya !!! Gl

Cashmoneyasians
03-17-2007, 03:15 PM
Best of Luck GP!!!

thesandman
03-17-2007, 03:49 PM
Gramps. Hate to spoil your exclusive bet on Louisville but I took them at +3 yesterday. They are red hot right now going 8-1 SU and 14-3 ATS after crushing Stanford Thursday. The Big East is a stronger conference than the Big 12 and like you said, this is just about a homegame for them.

GrandPa
03-17-2007, 04:15 PM
Sorry, sandman. As soon as I posted it, I realized that there were several top cats like yourelf on the Cards, as I was mainly referring to all forums, in general.

I did post that I was liking Louisville in my THURSDAY thread entitled, " ROUND 2 opening lines for discussion/analysis"

GL and let's get her in

jt4545
03-17-2007, 04:33 PM
You Might Just Be Right

GrandPa
03-17-2007, 06:45 PM
And in the end, experience wins again.

The superfrosh who has carried the 'ville for the entire game suddenly throws a wild pass, misses two free throws ( after 15 made in a row) and a 3.

A&M in San Antone. Might be Final Four time.

beerball101
03-17-2007, 06:54 PM
:bs:
that ending sucked!