This Year's Super Bowl Line Is Crazy

[griswold]

I've been betting sports for a long time but I'm not sure I've ever seen a weirder line on an exposed game. An exposed game is one where it's the only one being played on a given day and is high profile. There is no game more exposed than the Super Bowl. Everyone knows everything about the two teams. There's usually very little value.

Almost all NFL point spreads are set off of the power ratings at Las Vegas Sports Service (the old Roxy Roxborough company). Their power ratings are similar to everybody else's. You add 3 1/2-4 points to the home team and the line is set. Everybody's power ratings this year have Indy anywhere from 0.9 to 1.5 points better than New Orleans. Yet the line opened at -3 and has ballooned everywhere to -5 1/2.

I know there's emotionalism involved and everyone realizes New Orleans was very lucky to beat Minnesota. (I know this better than anybody. I had a large futures bet on the Vikes to win the NFC and a +600 on them to win the Super Bowl.) That not withstanding, there is no plausible explanation for the line going all the way to +5 1/2.

Indy can't stop the run and won more than half its games in nail biters. Has everyone forgotten that? The one thing I've always been able to do, probably because of hanging out with too many bookies, is figure out what a line will be and where the movement will go. I am shocked by this line. I've never seen anything like it in an exposed game like the Super Bowl.

The only thing I can do in response to this is set the emotions aside. I'm all in on New Orleans.

[jcheckers]

I'm with ya!!

[uconnplayer]

what do you think the line should be?

[Chado1]

I think the line is right where it should be. Lines are made to create equal action not based on how much a team should win by. With that being said if it was anything less than -2.5 that would not create equal action as everyone would be on Indy. Its dead on IMO...

[gametimesports]

Chado is exactly right. All vegas trys to do is put a line out so they can get half on one side and half on other so they can make money no matter what with the Juice. I know what you mean though as home field usally carries a 3 pt spread and so if Colts were at home in this game and the line is now 5.5 or 6 that means Saints would be getting 8.5 or 9 points on the road and that doesent seem right at all. Colts would probably be a 3 or 4 pt favorite at most at home v.s Saints so since its a nutreal field line should more be like Colts - 1.5 or 2 at the most. So you definatley can find some VALUE in the Saints because the TRUE LINE should be about 1.5 or 2 and the line is 5.5. There are many angles to look at in this game and wish you all the best. Goodluck

[jcheckers]

Public Loves the Fav & OV in Superbowls. Wait til gametime
and tease the Saints and UN. BTW the total of 56' is
the highest in Superbowl history....

[BigWeiner]

The Public likes the experience of the Colts. They think there is no way the Saints D can stop Peyton. A line of 6 makes you consider taking the Saints, but nobody likes to take a team in hopes that they lose but cover.

[griswold]

Originally Posted by Chado1

I think the line is right where it should be. Lines are made to create equal action not based on how much a team should win by. With that being said if it was anything less than -2.5 that would not create equal action as everyone would be on Indy. Its dead on IMO...

Chado

You miss my entire point. I know the public is betting the pants off of Indy. What I'm saying is the betting is irrational and books rarely move this much off their power ratings

[griswold]

Originally Posted by BigWeiner

The Public likes the experience of the Colts. They think there is no way the Saints D can stop Peyton. A line of 6 makes you consider taking the Saints, but nobody likes to take a team in hopes that they lose but cover.

Weiner

If this game was played six weeks ago when New Orl was killing everybody, the Saints would have been favored.

[BigWeiner]

Originally Posted by griswold

Weiner

If this game was played six weeks ago when New Orl was killing everybody, the Saints would have been favored.

I agree, but the Super Bowl makes crazy things happen, having experience being there is huge. Like I said, most people just can't see how the Saints D can stop Manning, and also they saw Brees cracking slightly under pressure in that last game. If the line was 3.5 or lower, I would see no choice but to take the Colts. 6 is a different story.

[BigWeiner]

The Public thinks that the Jets D and Ravens D is way better than the Saints D, but they're wrong, and having a good offense makes your defense even better.

[MtrCtyPimp]

Originally Posted by griswold

Chado

You miss my entire point. I know the public is betting the pants off of Indy. What I'm saying is the betting is irrational and books rarely move this much off their power ratings

You want a very recent example of this Gris?

Florida vs Alabama in the SEC championship.

Line opened as soon as they knew the matchup for this game about 2 or 3 weeks prior to it actually being playing and Florida was a 2.5 chalk.

Needless to say after Florida rolled up Florida St as a near 30 chalk and Alabama struggles with Auburn and barely escapes the line comes out at 5 during the week of the game.

High profile games most people only remember what have you done for me lately.

Nobody remembers that Indy could barely get by San Fran at home and Baltimore on the road. Nobody seems to care that Jax dropped 31 on em on a National TV Thursday game. Nobody seems to care that Houston had them beat twice and folded up both times. Nobody remembers how the Pats offense had nearly 500 yards of offense on National TV.

Truth is this isnt a great Indy team but they have a HOF QB and a very soft schedule and a couple of easy playoff games against weak offenses with the inability to challenge them.

In the end what does that equal? A Peyton Manning led offense with a super defense which equals a recipe for disaster for the Saints. Add in the fact that people feel the Saints are even lucky to be here and hence you have the huge line jump.

In terms of major shops moving the line to 6 I dont think thats plausible because they will be setting themselves up for huge middles and anyone waiting on the Saints might decide thats where they want to get in. I can see the 5.5 just start to get juiced up before they decide to move to a 6.

JMO

PEACE

[BattersUp!]

Originally Posted by jcheckers

I'm with ya!!

I second that

[griswold]

OK, I rest my case.